This could easily be you: It’s Saturday on Oscar weekend. Conan O’Brien and colleagues will be handing out the Academy Awards in a little more than 24 hours. It’s time for you to lock down the choices on your Oscar party pool.
And you haven’t seen any of the nominated movies.
Relax. Actually seeing the movies up for Oscars is not at all a requirement for winning your Oscar pool. In fact, too much familiarity with the nominated films can be a handicap, in much the same way that knowing too much about college basketball teams can harm your NCAA pool because you could too attached to an obscure team that you just know could sneak out two or three wins in the tournament but always gets blown out in the first round.
I know bupkis about this year’s college basketball field. But I can help you with your Oscar pool.
And if you think you might be able to beat me at this Oscar prediction game, let’s put some money on it — well, some of my money, at least.
What follows are my predictions for all 24 of this year’s Oscar categories, right down to documentary short subject. As I have in years past, I invite readers to email me their own predictions. If you do better than I do on predictions, you could end up winning a $25 gift certificate to Darkside Cinema.
In a normal year, I’ll get about 17 of these categories correct — and, in a normal year, that would be good enough for you to be in the running on your own Oscar pool.
But if you want to take on my Oscar challenge, the only requirement is that you email your predictions to me by 2 p.m. Sunday. Use the email address [email protected]. You don’t even have to guess all the categories, but (obviously) you can’t win a category you don’t pick.
So here are my Oscar predictions:
Picture: “Sinners” is starting to eat away at the early lead claimed by “One Battle After Another.” I wouldn’t be all that upset if “Sinners” claims the upset — but I think it has too much of a gap to make up. Go with “One Battle After Another.”
Director: This category often (but not always) lines up with the best picture winner. Paul Thomas Anderson, for “One Battle After Another,” should win. It would be his first Oscar.
Actress: Jessie Buckley, for “Hamnet,” in one of the evening’s few locks.
Actor: Earller this year, I had Timothee Chalamet pegged as the sure winner for “Marty Supreme.” But Chalamet has staged what amounts to a masterclass in how to lose an Oscar. The edge now goes to Michael B. Jordan for “Sinners.”
Supporting actress: Amy Madigan has opened what appears to be a good edge for her turn in the well-regarded horror flick “Weapons.”
Supporting actor: Sean Penn, for “One Battle After Another.” But a word of warning in the supporting categories: If “Sinners” starts to dominate the night, it could auger well for Delroy Lindo and Wunmi Mosaku.
Adapted screenplay: “One Battle After Another.”
Original screenplay: “Sinners.” There appears to be little suspense about the screenplay categories.
Casting: This is a new category for the Oscars, meant to honor the film that boasts the best overall cast. “Sinners” appears to have a substantial lead.
Editing: Usually — but not always — the winner aligns with the best picture winner, so the nod here goes to “One Battle After Another.”
Cinematography: An exceptionally interesting category, but the edge goes to “One Battle After Another,” which has fared well in earlier awards. But a win for the dark and gorgeous “Sinners” would mark the first time the cinematography award has gone to a woman.
Production design: “Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro’s lavish interpretation of the Mary Shelley tale, is considered the front-runner in all three design categories. But, again, this word of warning: A win for “Sinners” in any of these categories could be an early sign that the film is on its way to a big night.
Costume design: “Frankenstein.”
Makeup and hairstyling: “Frankenstein.”
Original song: There’s only one song among these five that you’ve heard, and that’s “Golden,” from “KPop Demon Hunters.”
Score: “Sinners” has the edge.
Sound: “F1” is considered the favorite. But, again, this could be a category where a win for “Sinners” could signal a sweep.
Visual effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” Every installment of the “Avatar” series has won this category.
International feature: “Sentimental Value,” but “The Secret Agent” could surprise.
Animated feature: “KPop Demon Hunters.”
Documentary: “The Perfect Neighbor” is the front-runner.
Best documentary short: The wrenching “All the Empty Rooms” is the heavy favorite.
Best animated short: “Butterfly,” on the theory that Holocaust-themed films about the Holocaust often do well at the Oscars.
Live action short: This is apparently a very close race between “Two People Exchanging Saliva” and “A Friend of Dorothy.” For whatever reason, “Saliva” appears to be gaining ground, and I give it the slight edge.
Remember, to win the $25 Darkside gift card, you have to do better than I do — which means your prediction in at least one category has to be better than mine. But that shouldn’t be that difficult. So, assuming I get 17 categories right, I’ll gather up all the entries that got 18 or more correct, and I’ll randomly choose one for the prize.
Remember the deadline for your entry is 2 p.m. Sunday. Your entry doesn’t have to be fancy — just list your predictions by category and shoot me the email.
I’ll see you at the movies.




You’re right that watching a film actually makes it harder to predict without bias.
Here’s my attempt to pick at least a few correct award recipients
Picture: Sinners
Director:Coobld
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley
Best Actor: Michael B Jordan
Supporting Actor: DelRoy Lindo
Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan
Adapted Screenplay: Frankenstein
Original Screenplay: Sinners
International Feature: The Secrecet Agent
Docum. Feature: Come See Me in the Good Light
Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
Cinematography: Sinners
Editing: Sinners
Original Song: Golden
Costume Design: Avatar
Casting: Marty Supreme
Original Score: Sinners
Makeup/Hairstyling: Frankenstein
Production Design: Marty Supreme
Visual Effects: Avatar
Sound: Sinners
Action short: A Friend of Dorothy
Animated short: Butterfly
Documentary short: Children No More